America the eternally blessed? Wednesday, 18 March, 2009
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David Brooks’s March 16 column in the New York Times is titled “The commercial republic” and it is a classic piece of American mythology. To be fair, however, it is not just Americans who indulge in it, but also a far from negiligible portion of the educated people of the world.
David Brooks made the classic argument of the intrinsic, fundamental and enduring vitality of Americans. He explains it by the fact that the quest for wealth through commerce is an intrinsic feature of American history and culture. He has a point, since, indeed, not many nations on Earth have the phrase “pursuit of happiness” in their founding document.
But this view is superficial because it relies on another intrinsic, fundamental and enduring feature, this time of human nature in general: its nearsightedness. Change always seems to take us humans by surprise. But perhaps that is not fair, since that is more or less the definition of change. If it wasn’t surprising it wouldn’t be called change.
Still, even the most cursory glance through human history will bring up countless examples of powerful leaders, cultures and civilizations that eventually either collapsed, disappeared, or otherwise changed into something less prosperous. Moreover, some of the ones that burned brightest, burned shortest, for instance the Macedonian empire, the Mongol empire and the French empire. In 1985 few in the West or in the East would have dared dream that communism in Europe would be dead and buried in less than 5 years.
When it is the powerful who are doing the “not dreaming” there is a name for it. It’s called hubris.
There are many things that could change in a heartbeat, and that could severely change the rules of the game. A simple example is the flow of immigration. Immigrants (whether voluntary or involuntary – slaves) have been the steroids of the American economy for centuries, and the majority of them have been European. That flow has slowed down in recent years however, with the exception of the Mexican inflow. Is the addiction to immigration strong enough to cause serious withdrawal? Maybe so, maybe not.
Another example is a sudden drop in Chinese and Arab confidence in the American economy. It is Chinese and Arab dollars that are financing American deficits and debt. A point may come (for a whole variety of possible reasons) where the mind boggling debt that America has and will continue to accumulate will make them reluctant to throw even more money into what they will perceive as a black hole. Besides, why should some of the poorest people of the world endlessly subsidize some of the richest? Because the question has not occurred to them yet, but it will…
Yet another example is that a major environmental disaster on a global scale (only a matter of time now) may turn the cultural and economic assets to which David Brooks sings praises into liabilities.
To put it shortly, America has become addicted not only to cheap oil, but to a whole slew of other economic candy: immigration, blank-check financing of its debt, a currency used as a world currency, non-existent environmental regulation, the willingness of a billion and a half people to work for “iou”s instead of money.
Like any addiction, you feel like the king of the world for a while, and then you suddenly feel like the rug has been pulled out from under you. It’s called being a victim of one’s own success.
Mr. Brooks, there is nothing intrinsic, fundamental or enduring about being the king of the world.
